Forecast Errors of Final U.S. Soybean Yield Since 2010

Forecasts errors of the final U.S. soybean yield by YieldCast, the market, and the USDA in August and October are below.

The YieldCast forecast is the last forecast released prior to the Crop Production report.  The market forecast is from the Bloomberg / Reuters survey published a few days prior to the release of the month’s Crop Production report.  The USDA forecast is the forecast from its Crop Production report.  The final yield is released by the USDA once all data is collected and revised the following year.