YieldCast®

YieldCast is a series of statistical models that incorporate crop, weather, and yield observations to objectively forecast the U.S. corn and soybean yield every Tuesday from April into October.

 

The real test of the accuracy of U.S. corn and soybean yield forecasts takes place before the USDA issues its forecast in the August Crop Production report.   During critical periods leading into the report, yield forecasters do not have the benefit of “anchoring” to USDA estimates.  Futures prices often change substantially leading up to and through the report, so accurate yield forecasts have a very high value in early August.

 

The performance of YieldCast corn forecasts in early August has been truly outstanding.  Over the last 8 growing seasons, the YieldCast forecast of U.S. corn yield in early-August averaged #1 closest to the final yield of 30 to 40 market analysts — measured before the release of the USDA August Crop Production report.  More so, YieldCast forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts in its August Crop Production report.   The value of YieldCast generally diminishes after mid-September as the crop matures and more is known about actual yields.

 

YieldCast soybean forecasts were not as accurate as for corn, but also beat the market by a slight margin in early August, were similar to the USDA, and ranked among the three best in 2 of the last 3 years as the models were adjusted to reflect improving technology.

 

The update to our full research study is available here:  http://www.tstorm.net/yieldcast-2018update/

 

Subscription Information
YieldCast® forecasts are provided each Tuesday at 12 PM Central Time (1700 UTC) from April 18 through October 10 in 2017. Pricing for one year of service  is as follows:

 

$3,200 for 1 license (person), or
$5,250 for 2 – 5 licenses, and
$1,000 for each additional license beyond 5

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