YieldCast®

YieldCast is a series of statistical models that incorporate crop, weather, and yield observations to objectively forecast the U.S. corn and soybean yield every Wednesday from April into October.

The performance of YieldCast forecasts in early August has been truly outstanding, as the real test of the accuracy of U.S. corn and soybean yield forecasts takes place before the USDA issues their first forecast in the August Crop Production report.  During critical periods leading into that report, yield forecasters do not have the benefit of “anchoring” to USDA estimates.

For corn, over the last 9 growing seasons, the YieldCast forecast of the final U.S. yield averaged #1 closest to the final yield of approximately 35 market analysts (as provided by Reuters / Bloomberg) in early August, including among the 3 best in 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, and 2017.  More so, YieldCast forecasts averaged closer to the final yield than provided by the USDA in the August Crop Production report over 2010-18.  And, YieldCast early October forecasts averaged nearly identical to the October Crop Production report.  A detailed analysis of our corn forecasts is available here: YieldCast: Best Track Record In the Corn Industry Last 9 Years.

YieldCast soybean forecasts were quite good as YieldCast averaged closer to the final yield than the market and USDA in early August and early September, but did not beat each in early October.

Each weekly corn yield forecast since 2010 is available here, and an analysis of the accuracy of YieldCast compared to the market and USDA in August and October is available here.

Each weekly soybean yield forecast since 2010 is available here, and YieldCast compared to the market and USDA in August and October is available here.

An Excel file with the corn and soybean forecast data since 2010 is available here.

Subscription Information
In 2019, YieldCast® forecasts are provided each Wednesday at 12 PM Central Time (1700 UTC) from April 17 through October 9. Pricing for one year of service  is as follows:

$3,250 for 1 license (person), or
$5,300 for 2 – 5 licenses, and
$1,000 for each additional license beyond 5

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