What is YieldCast™?
YieldCast™ is a subscription-based weekly report that forecasts U.S. average corn and soybean yields.
Who subscribes to YieldCast™?
Subscribers primarily include people and businesses that are influenced by the level of corn and soybean production in the U.S.
When is the YieldCast™ report published?
YieldCast is published every Tuesday from mid-April through early-October.
How do you make yield forecasts?
Yield forecasts are generated from statistical models that capture the historic relationship between weather and corn and soybean yields. Multiple models are used to capture the accuracy advantage of composite forecasting.
What makes YieldCast™ different?
The corn and soybean yield forecasts rely on well-researched and statistically accurate crop-weather models that capture the pathways between weather and yields. Additionally, the forecasts reflect the strength of composite forecasting and incorporate growing season weather forecasts.
How accurate is YieldCast™?
Real-time forecasts were provided by YieldCast™ for the first time in 2010. Early season YieldCast™ forecasts (beginning in June) in 2010 significantly out- performed both the USDA forecasts and market expectations.
The final YieldCast™ corn forecast was only 4.5 bushels (2.9 percent) larger than the final USDA estimate; click here to review all 2010 corn yield forecasts. The final YieldCast™ soybean forecast was only 0.3 bushels larger than the final USDA estimate; click here to review all 2010 soybean yield forecasts.
For an analysis of the longer term performance of YieldCast™ methodology compared to USDA forecasts, click here for corn and click here for soybeans
How is YieldCast delivered?
The weekly yield forecasts are delivered via email in a newsletter format each Tuesday from the second week of April through the first week of October. Included are the current forecasts, a graphical summary of the current season forecast history for YieldCast™ and the USDA, and brief crop comments. For an example of the weekly update from 2010 click here.
What are the credentials of YieldCast™ principals?
YieldCast™ combines the expertise of Darrel Good, Professor Emeritus, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois; Scott Irwin, Professor and Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois; and Mike Tannura, Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner of T-storm Weather in Chicago, Illinois.
Where can I learn more about YieldCast?
We have prepared a brief white paper that provides background on U.S. corn and soybean yields and more detail on the methodology and performance of YieldCast™. Click here to read the white paper and click here to review the brochure.
How much is a subscription YieldCast™?
A subscription for the 2011 growing season (April 12 - October 4) is $3,000 for 1 user and $5,000 for 2-6 users.
How can I subscribe?
Email yieldcast@tstorm.net to request subscription information.